There seemed to be a
significant amount of momentum building towards a comprehensive climate
legislation being passed in 2010. A bipartisan bill was in the works.
The White House supported the measure. And the House had already passed a
climate change bill in 2009. However things did not work out as planned
and the year is coming to a close without a climate bill having ever
made it to the Senate floor.
Creating
an economy-wide mechanism to curb the emissions of greenhouse gases has
been one of the Obama Administration’s highest priorities. The
administration had pursued two different pathways to enact economy wide
GHG controls. The first method, and the one preferred by the
administration, was developing legislation to cap the amount of
greenhouse gases emitted by industry and then allowing those covered by
said cap to trade amongst themselves to meet the overall emissions
limit. Simultaneously, the administration was pursuing a regulatory
approach to control GHG emissions. This approach has allowed EPA to
create emissions guidelines for GHG under several provisions of the
Clean Air Act. It was widely believed that the regulatory approach was
only pursued as a method of keeping the preferred legislative pathway on
a forward course. However as 2011 draws nearer the regulatory approach
has won out.
What Happened?
There
were several factors that led to the failure of a comprehensive climate
change bill this year. Many political and outside factors together
created the perfect storm that essentially killed cap and trade
legislation for the foreseeable future.
Lack of Republican Support
Senator
Lindsey Graham (R-SC) had originally planned on co-sponsoring a climate
change bill. He received significant political flack from fellow
Republicans but Graham maintained his position that supporting climate
change legislation was important to national security. This was until he
made an abrupt retreat from the bill on April 25, 2010. Graham’s exit
was the result of a conflict with Senate Majority Leader, Harry Reid
(D-NV). Reid had expressed uncertainty as to when he was willing to
introduce the climate bill on the Senate floor. Originally the bill was
scheduled to be on the Senate’s calendar in late April, but Reid
indicated immigration reform may be tackled first. Because Graham had
risked the favor of the Republican Party by supporting a democratic
concept, he saw this reneging by Reid as a sign that climate change
legislation may not receive the same support as it had in the other
chamber. Without his support the bill was no longer bipartisan.
Gulf Oil Spill
The
massive oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico has also had a major impact on
the climate change bill. A major provision of the bill was set to be a
section on off-shore oil drilling expansion. But after the April 20th
Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill, support for this provision has waned. This
specific provision had originally been added to gain additional support
from undecided Democrats, whose numbers were crucial to passage. After
the spill, this provision became toxic and the bill writers were unable
to introduce another provision that would be able to garner the support
of the same faction.
Anti-Establishment Movement
This
year’s election season saw an enormous about of backlash against
established political figures in DC. Many career politicians were
unceremoniously beaten in primaries by previously unknown candidates, in
what can only be described as a backlash against what citizens deemed
as beltway insiders out of touch with the rest of America. The backlash
was not limited to one party or the other. Senator Lisa Murkowski of
Alaska was defeated in her republican primary despite being one of the
biggest opponents of EPA’s GHG controls (she won her election in a
write-in campaign). This movement affected the voting of many members of
Congress as there was so much uncertainty regarding the outcome of the
elections many were afraid to take “tough votes” on Capitol Hill.
Because of the complexity and scope of a climate bill, it has
notoriously been one of the most difficult types of bills to reach
cloture on.
What can we expect in 2011?
Climate
change legislation will not be seen again in its current form for years
to come. The day after the November elections President Obama conceded
that cap and trade legislation was only one way to tackle the issue of
climate change and he was willing to consider other methods.
Unless
an eleventh hour deal is reached, EPA’s Tailoring Rule will move
forward as finalized. Beginning on January 2, 2011, this regulation will
force stationary sources to apply the best available control
technologies to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. It is unclear at
this point what attempt, if any, will be made by Congress in the next
session to halt this regulation.
Next
year the most likely piece of legislation expected will be some sort of
“clean energy standard”. This type of mandate would require utilities
to procure a percentage of their electricity from clean, reliable
sources. These include not only renewables, but also nuclear and clean
coal. Senators Graham and Lugar have both released version of these
standards, both of which have included LFG and WTE.